Chair of Macroeconomics - Prof. Dr. Maik Wolters
Welcome! We study macroeconomic phenomena and are particularly interested in monetary and fiscal policy, business cycle models and macroeconomic forecasting.
A current example is a Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor model that can be used to forecast recession probabilities (left graph) and GDP growth (right graph). (Data for Germany until May 2018).
Source: Carstensen, Heinrich, Reif, Wolters (2017). "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle", CESifo Working Paper 6457.