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Research

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a  Three-State Makrov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle,

with Kai Carstensen, Markus Heinrich and Magnus Reif, May 2017.

 

How the Baby Boomers' Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap Estimates,

February 2016, Datafile: Demographically Adjusted US Hours Timeseries.

 

Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?

with Nils Jannsen and Galina Potjagailo, August 2015.

 

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium,

with Tim Schwarzmüller, May 2015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. a High Inflation Environment,

with Mewael F. Tesfaselassie,

Review of Economic Dynamics, forthcoming.

 

Forecasting with Large Datasets: Aggregating Before, During or After the Estimation,

with Inske Pirschel,

Empirical Economics, forthcoming.

 

The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach, Codes

with Peter Tillmann,

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, April 2015, 19(2), 161-182.

 

Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models, Appendix,

Journal of Applied Econometrics, January/February 2015, 30(1), 74-96.

 

Sticky Information Models in Dynare, Software,

with Fabio Verona,

Computational Economics, March 2014, 43(3), 357-370.

 

Do large recessions reduce output permanently? codes,

with Mehdi Hosseinkouchack,

Economics Letters, December 2013, 121(3), 516-519.

 

Forecasting and Policy Making,

with Volker Wieland, Chapter 5, in G. Elliott and A. Timmermann, Eds.,

Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2, Elsevier, August 2013, 239-325.

 

Fiscal consolidation strategies,

with John Cogan, John Taylor and Volker Wieland,

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, February 2013, 37(2), 404-421.

 

A New Comparative Approach to Macroeconomic Modeling and Policy Analysis, codes,

with Volker Wieland, Tobias Cwik, Gernot J. Müller and Sebastian Schmidt,

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, August 2012, 83(3), 523-541.

 

Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions Using Quantile Regressions, codes,

Journal of Macroeconomics, June 2012, 34(2): 342-361.

 

The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy, Link to voxeu.org article.

with Volker Wieland,

Economic Theory, June 2011, 47(2-3): 247-292.

 

Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?

with Tobias Cwik and Gernot J. Müller,

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, April 2011, 35(4): 545-564.

 

 

 

 

Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: An Assessment Based on a Literature Survey,

with Salomon Fiedler, Isabel Hanisch, and Nils Jannsen,

Credit and Capital Markets, forthcoming.

 

Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? A Literature Review with an Application to the Euro Area,

with Salomon Fiedler, Nils Jannsen, and Stefan Reitz, S.,

Review of Economics, December 2016, 67(3): 231-254.

 

Transmission channels of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area: Where do we stand?

with Salomon Fiedler, Isabel Hanisch, and Nils Jannsen,

Monetary Expert Panel Briefing for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, November 2016.

 

Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation?

with Salomon Fiedler, Nils Jannsen and Stefan Reitz,

Monetary Expert Panel Briefing for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, November 2015.

 

The Effects of Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Initially Useful, but Subsequently Largely Ineffective,

with Nils Jannsen and Galina Potjagailo,

Global Economic Symposium Blog, October 2015.

 

Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Transmission Channels and Risks,

with Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Nils Jannsen and Stefan Kooths,

Intereconomics, 50(4): 206-212, August 2015.

 

Quantitative Easing carried out by the US Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan: What are the key policy messages relevant for the euro area that can be drawn from these experiences?

with Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Nils Jannsen and Stefan Kooths,

Monetary Expert Panel Briefing for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, March 2015.

 

Is there a Threat of Self-Reinforcing Deflation in the Euro Area? A View through the Lens of the Phillips Curve,

with Volker Wieland,

IfW Kiel Policy Brief 79, September 2014.

 

Fiscal Consolidation Strategy: An Update for the Budget Reform Proposal of March 2013,

with John Cogan, John Taylor and Volker Wieland,

IMFS Working Paper No. 68, March 18, 2013.

 

Macroeconomic Model Comparisons and Forecast Competitions,

with Volker Wieland,

VoxEU.org, February 13, 2012

 

 

 

Deutsche Wirtschaft gut ausgelastet - Wirtschaftspolitik neu ausrichten,

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2016 (with many Coauthors of IfW, ifo, IWH, DIW und RWI), September 2016.

 

Getrübte Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur,

with Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths and Martin Plödt,

Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2016|Q1, March 2016.

 

Schwäche in den Schwellenländern bremst Weltkonjunktur,

with Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths and Galina Potjagailo,

Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2015|Q3, September 2015.

 

Deutschland: Expansion trotzt weltwirtschaftlicher Unruhe,

with Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Martin Plödt and Galina Potjagailo,

Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2015|Q3, September 2015.

 

Zwischen GREMAIN und GREXIT: Euroraum in der Bewährungskrise,

with Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Dominik Groll, Philipp Hauber, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Rolf J. Langhammer, Martin Plödt, Galina Potjagailo and Ulrich Stolzenburg,

Kiel Policy Brief 90, July 2015.

 

Deutschland auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur,

with Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Inske Pirschel and Martin Plödt,

Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2015|Q1, March 2015.

 

Euroraum: Dämpfer für die Konjunktur, Konjunktur im Euroraum im Herbst 2014,

with Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Dominik Groll, Joachim Scheide and Tim Schwarzmüller,

Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2014|Q3, September 2014.

 

Zwang und Zufall,

with Stefan Kooths,

Wirtschaftswoche,

appeared also as IfW Kiel Focus 169 with the title: Marktwirtschaftliche Politik statt politisierte Märkte - Wider den grassierenden Neointerventionismus, June 2014.

 

Möglichkeiten und Grenzen von makroökonomischen Modellen zur (exante) Evaluierung wirtschaftspolitischer Maßnahmen,

Working Paper 05/2013, German Council of Economic Experts, November 2013.

 

Die Fed steckt in der Sackgasse,

with Nils Jannsen,

Zeit online, April 2013.

 

Gralshüter der Neoklassik?,

with Volker Wieland,

Das Wirtschaftsstudium, 2011, 40(12): 1576-1579.

This is an article about the work of the 2011 Nobel laureates in economics Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims.

 

 

 

 

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