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Working Paper

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a  Three-State Makrov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle,

with Kai Carstensen, Markus Heinrich and Magnus Reif, May 2017.

 

How the Baby Boomers' Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap Estimates,

February 2016, Datafile: Demographically Adjusted US Hours Timeseries.

 

Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?

with Nils Jannsen and Galina Potjagailo, August 2015.

 

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium,

with Tim Schwarzmüller, May 2015.