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Welcome to the Chair of Macroeconomics

Jena by night
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Im VM Konjunktur, Wachstum, Außenhandel (VM21.2) werden die Veranstaltungen in der zweiten Vorlesungswoche 2020 fortgesetzt (Übung: 13.01.20; Vorlesung: 14.01.20). In der Woche vom 06. bis 10.01.20 finden keine Veranstaltungen statt.

Please note that the master course Advanced Macroeconomics (MW21.1) will be continued in the second lecture week of 2020 (exercise session: 13.01.20; lecture: 14.01.20). There will be no sessions during the week between 06. - 10.01.20.

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Master Courses Summer Term 2020

During the summer term 2020, the Chair will offer the course on Empirical Macroeconomics (MW21.4). The course on Monetary and Fiscal Policy (MW21.3) will not take place during the summer term 2020 but will be offered again during the winter term 2020/2021.

Students interested in Monetary Macroeconomics may want to consider taking the course IPE II: Monetary Macroeconomics (MW25.3) - jointly offered by Prof. Dr. Aandreas Freytag and PD Dr. Markus Pasche.

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New Graduate Program under the direction of Prof. Dr. Maik Wolters

In 2020, the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration will initiate a new Graduate Program to intensify research on the implications of digitization on economic processes. The program will be directed by Prof. Dr. Maik Wolters and will be conducted in an interdisciplinary environment.

For more information see herede (reported in German).

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Rezessionsrisiko der deutschen Wirtschaft deutlich erhöht

Ist die konjunkturelle Abkühlung der deutschen Wirtschaft in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2018 ein Hinweis auf eine kurzfristige konjunkturelle Schwächephase, oder ist eine länger anhaltende Rezession zu erwarten?

Kai Carstensen, Universität zu Kiel, Magnus Reif, ifo Institut, und Maik Wolters, Universität Jena, schätzen das aktuelle Rezessionsrisiko mit Hilfe eines dynamischen, nichtlinearen Faktormodells. Ihre Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Gefahr einer Rezession zurzeit deutlich erhöht ist und auch in den kommenden Quartalen mit einer konjunkturellen Schwächephase zu rechnen ist. Insbesondere deuten die seit einiger Zeit abwärts gerichteten Befragungsdaten darauf hin.

Zum ifo Schnelldienst Bericht.

Germany Faces Distinctively Elevated Recessionary Risks 

Does the cooling down of the German business cycle during the second half of 2018 reflect a rather short phase of economic weakness or is a longer lasting recession foreshadowed?

Using a dynamic, nonlinear factor model to estimate current recessionary risks Kai Carstensen (University of Kiel), Magnus Reif (ifo Institut), and Maik Wolters (University of Jena) show that the German economy currently faces distinctively elevated recession risks. Especially downward trending survey data indicates that the cooling down in German business cycle dynamics is here to stay - at least for the upcoming next quarters.

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model, with Kai Carstensen, Markus Heinrich and Magnus Reif, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming, Current Recession Probabilities for Germany Based on the Paper.

Chair of Macroeconomics
Chair's Office, Room 4.150
Carl-Zeiß-Straße 3
07743 Jena
Phone
+49 3641 9-43160
Fax
+49 3641 9-43163
Opening hours:
Monday to Thursday 9.00 to 11.00 am
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